There is an inverse correlation between how likely something is to occur and how much attention it gets – a phenomenon a friend has dubbed the DelPrete Probability Paradox. (View Highlight)
Why it matters: This leads to attention being focused on the highly exciting, yet least likely scenarios, which dilutes focus and clarity while creating noise and distraction. (View Highlight)
Real estate is rife with possibility – news headlines and conference agendas are packed with topics that exist in the realm of the possible and plausible, but not necessarily probable.
• Will AI replace agents? What will happen to interest rates? How will the commission lawsuits change the industry?
• The reality is that no one knows, and the most probable outcomes are slow, incremental deviations from the current state, not radical changes.
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Probability revolves around the existence of data, facts, and evidence – the more we know, the more certain the predictions.
• The least likely events – the possible – generally exist in a reality light on facts and flush with speculation.
• Facts are important; they form a trajectory of likeliness – plotting them over time and triangulating data points can identify likely outcomes. (View Highlight)
Inertia rules: Newton’s First Law states that an object in motion will stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force – in other words, systems tend to remain constant.
• Consider the percentage of homeowners that use a real estate agent to sell their home: even after the introduction of Zillow, Opendoor, and billions of dollars in venture capital pushing alternative models, it remains at a 40 year high.
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