OpenAI will begin to resemble Google more than DeepMind (search, browser, devices, hardware, robotics; not just AI software like GPTs and o1/o3) (View Highlight)
The US government will create the first AGI-centered national security project to face China’s alleged threat, collaborating with leading AI companies (including Big Tech). BRICS will follow suit (perhaps not in 2025) (View Highlight)
At least one AI product will cost upward of $2000/month (View Highlight)
There won’t be an AI winter (defined, using historical figures of previous winter periods, by a reduction in total investment in the generative AI industry below 20% of the previous year) (View Highlight)
Leading research will move on from pure pre-trained large language models into overlooked avenues like search-based intelligence, test-time training, test-time thinking, and, to a lesser degree, non-transformer architectures (View Highlight)
ARC-AGI (v1 and v2) and FrontierMath benchmarks won’t be solved 100% regardless of the time/money spent (View Highlight)
There won’t be mass unemployment due to AI (employment rates will remain stable throughout 2025, at least regarding AI progress) (View Highlight)
The ceiling of AI capabilities will rise beyond the superhuman level in coding/math/science (i.e. at least Terence Tao level in math) (View Highlight)
One or various of the big AI labs will put ads into their products (View Highlight)
OpenAI’s revenue, dominated by individual users (>60%), will shift towards businesses (B2B), better positioned to afford premium offerings like ChatGPT Pro ($200/month), which will be increasingly more common as we approach AGI (View Highlight)
Google will either acquire, acqui-hire, or kill Magic (long context windows) and/or Perplexity (AI search) (View Highlight)
Google and DeepMind will be broadly considered the leaders of the AI race toward AGI over OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta by the end of 2025 (View Highlight)
An AI-generated movie (featurette length at least) will win an award (View Highlight)
Hallucinations won’t be solved; the most advanced model created in 2025 will still make factual mistakes that no human would make (View Highlight)
The generative AI financial bubble will pop (reflected in stock graphs and bankruptcy fillings), elevating a few winners (e.g. OpenAI, Google) into an unbreakable oligopoly (View Highlight)
At least a major news outlet (e.g. NYT) will claim China is on par with (or above) the US on most fronts: research, development, manufacturing, and productization—with the possible exception of innovation (View Highlight)
